Direxion Daily Junior Gold Miners Index Bear 2X Shares (JDST) Forecast Probability Model for June 28, 2020




Direxion Daily Junior Gold Miners Index Bear 2X Shares (JDST) tracks the daily price and performance of MVIS Global Junior Gold Miners Index at a 200% inverse. The fund consists of short positions, futures contracts, and swap agreements. MVIS Global Junior Gold Miners Index is based on micro, small, and mid capitalization companies. It is non-diversified.

For the week of July 2, 2020, Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) reports a 252.0 K of gold speculative net positions. The report provides market sentiment for speculative traders on their short or long positions. The report consists of net positions for non-commercial or speculative traders in futures market.

When examining and comparing current trend on a 60 day performance, the results are:

Day By Day Probability



Day by day probability consists on nominal forecast in percentage movements.

Nominal Forecast



Based on 2019-08-21,2019-11-14 trend, it took 7 days to move 9.22% or 20.26.
Based on 2017-12-20,2018-03-20 trend, it took 7 days to move -10.07% or 16.68.
Based on 2015-10-07,2016-01-04 trend, it took 7 days to move 12.03% or 20.78.
Based on 2015-10-05,2015-12-30 trend, it took 7 days to move -6.67% or 17.31.
Based on 2015-10-01,2015-12-28 trend, it took 7 days to move -20.77% or 14.70.
Based on 2014-02-10,2014-05-07 trend, it took 7 days to move 0.49% or 18.64.
Based on 2013-10-15,2014-01-10 trend, it took 7 days to move -44.75% or 10.25.

Technical Performance Models



*Simple Moving Average (SMA)
Find past trends closely related to current trend's technical performance for a nominal forecast:

2020-04-01,2020-06-26 trend was -54.93% from monthly high, 93.64% from monthly low, -8.78% from 10 simple moving average, -10.91% from 20 simple moving average, and -11.84% from 50 simple moving average.
2019-08-21,2019-11-14 trend was -25.37% from monthly high, 19.96% from monthly low, -1.34% from 10 simple moving average, -2.42% from 20 simple moving average, and -4.58% from 50 simple moving average.
2017-12-20,2018-03-20 trend was -12.97% from monthly high, 26.76% from monthly low, 2.64% from 10 simple moving average, 2.86% from 20 simple moving average, and 8.25% from 50 simple moving average.
2015-10-07,2016-01-04 trend was -37.75% from monthly high, 23.36% from monthly low, -5.92% from 10 simple moving average, -9.50% from 20 simple moving average, and -12.77% from 50 simple moving average.
2015-10-05,2015-12-30 trend was -24.93% from monthly high, 30.49% from monthly low, 2.06% from 10 simple moving average, -1.80% from 20 simple moving average, and -3.24% from 50 simple moving average.
2015-10-01,2015-12-28 trend was -29.53% from monthly high, 27.93% from monthly low, -4.38% from 10 simple moving average, -6.70% from 20 simple moving average, and -6.11% from 50 simple moving average.
2014-02-10,2014-05-07 trend was -11.91% from monthly high, 38.98% from monthly low, 7.74% from 10 simple moving average, 4.21% from 20 simple moving average, and 12.60% from 50 simple moving average.
2013-10-15,2014-01-10 trend was -57.06% from monthly high, 38.30% from monthly low, -10.41% from 10 simple moving average, -20.87% from 20 simple moving average, and -14.24% from 50 simple moving average.

Video Analysis







Software used: https://nforecast.com

Disclaimer: This is for educational, informational, and entertainment purposes. This is not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold. This is a hypothetical use of Nforecast tool. You should not construe any data or information presented by the author of blog posts or Nforecast LLC as investment, tax, legal, financial or other advice.