Direxion Daily S&P Oil & Gas Exp. & Prod. Bear 2X Shares (DRIP) Forecast Probability Model for June 21, 2020


Direxion Daily S&P Oil & Gas Exp. & Prod. Bear 2X Shares (DRIP) tracks the price and performance of S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production Select Industry Index at leverage 200% inverse. It consists of short positions, futures contracts, and swap agreements. It is a non-diversified fund, and it is built to match the inverse (opposite) performance of sub-industry or group of sub-industries of oil & gas exploration & production.

For the week ending June 26, 2020, commercial crude oil inventories increased by 7.2 million barrels per day and inventories rest at 533.5 million barrels. These inventories are excluded from Strategic Petroleum Reserve. From a 5 year average, that is a 15% increase on inventories. US crude oil imports increased by 6.0 million barrels per day and averaged 6.5 million barrels per day. Crude oil refinery inputs averaged approximately 14.0 million barrels per day, which is 193,000 barrels per day compared to last week's average. Refineries are operating at 75.5% of their capacity.

When examining and comparing current trend on a 30 day performance, the results are:

Day By Day Probability



Day by day probability consists on nominal forecast in percentage movements.

Nominal Forecast



Based on 2019-11-15,2019-12-31 trend, it took 7 days to move 4.61% or 5.10.
Based on 2019-08-14,2019-09-26 trend, it took 7 days to move 20.42% or 5.88.
Based on 2019-08-12,2019-09-24 trend, it took 7 days to move 21.85% or 5.95.
Based on 2019-08-08,2019-09-20 trend, it took 7 days to move 26.40% or 6.17.
Based on 2015-09-10,2015-10-22 trend, it took 7 days to move -11.13% or 4.34.
Based on 2015-09-08,2015-10-20 trend, it took 7 days to move 8.99% or 5.32.

Technical Performance Models



*Simple Moving Average (SMA)
Find past trends closely related to current trend's technical performance for a nominal forecast:

2020-05-07,2020-06-19 trend was -77.05% from monthly high, 34.63% from monthly low, 11.95% from 10 simple moving average, -6.45% from 20 simple moving average, and N/A from 50 simple moving average.
2019-11-15,2019-12-31 trend was -75.56% from monthly high, 0.23% from monthly low, -4.54% from 10 simple moving average, -19.84% from 20 simple moving average, and N/A from 50 simple moving average.
2019-08-14,2019-09-26 trend was -58.61% from monthly high, 30.98% from monthly low, 12.59% from 10 simple moving average, -3.63% from 20 simple moving average, and N/A from 50 simple moving average.
2019-08-12,2019-09-24 trend was -67.42% from monthly high, 27.15% from monthly low, 5.69% from 10 simple moving average, -13.09% from 20 simple moving average, and N/A from 50 simple moving average.
2019-08-08,2019-09-20 trend was -80.69% from monthly high, 21.37% from monthly low, -4.05% from 10 simple moving average, -23.75% from 20 simple moving average, and N/A from 50 simple moving average.
2015-09-10,2015-10-22 trend was -79.34% from monthly high, 20.38% from monthly low, 7.74% from 10 simple moving average, -11.09% from 20 simple moving average, and N/A from 50 simple moving average.
2015-09-08,2015-10-20 trend was -95.25% from monthly high, 13.32% from monthly low, 2.50% from 10 simple moving average, -21.88% from 20 simple moving average, and N/A from 50 simple moving average.

Video Analysis





Software used: https://nforecast.com

Disclaimer: This is for educational, informational, and entertainment purposes. This is not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold. This is a hypothetical use of Nforecast tool. You should not construe any data or information presented by the author of blog posts or Nforecast LLC as investment, tax, legal, financial or other advice.