S&P 500 (SPY) Forecast Probability Model for July 3, 2020


The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust tracks the price and yield performance of the S&P 500 Index. Its objective is matching the weights of each stock in the index.

The economic calendar for the week of July 6 to July 10:
On Monday, July 6, 2020:
ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI is forecasted to be 49.5.
On Tuesday, July 7, 2020: 
JOLTs Job Openings for May is forecasted to be 5.000 M.
On Thursday, July 9, 2020:
Initial Jobless Claims.
On Friday, July 10, 2020:
PPI for month of June is forecasted to be 0.4%.

When examining and comparing current trend on a 60 day performance, the results are:

Day By Day Probability



Day by day probability consists on nominal forecast in percentage movements.

Nominal Forecast


Based on 2010-08-31,2010-11-24 trend, it took 7 days to move 2.07% or 318.65.
Based on 2010-02-08,2010-05-05 trend, it took 7 days to move -2.74% or 303.65.
Based on 2009-07-20,2009-10-13 trend, it took 7 days to move 1.69% or 317.48.
Based on 2009-07-16,2009-10-09 trend, it took 7 days to move 1.78% or 317.74.
Based on 2003-04-15,2003-07-11 trend, it took 7 days to move -1.10% or 308.74.
Based on 2003-04-11,2003-07-09 trend, it took 7 days to move -1.10% or 308.75.
Based on 2003-04-09,2003-07-07 trend, it took 7 days to move -0.80% or 309.70.
Based on 2003-04-07,2003-07-02 trend, it took 7 days to move 0.92% or 315.05.
Based on 2003-04-03,2003-06-30 trend, it took 7 days to move 1.65% or 317.34.
Based on 2003-03-06,2003-06-02 trend, it took 7 days to move 2.96% or 321.42.
Based on 2003-03-04,2003-05-29 trend, it took 7 days to move 2.89% or 321.22.
Based on 2001-09-26,2001-12-20 trend, it took 7 days to move 0.67% or 314.30.
Based on 2001-09-24,2001-12-18 trend, it took 7 days to move 0.85% or 314.86.
Based on 2001-09-18,2001-12-12 trend, it took 7 days to move 0.57% or 313.98.

Technical Performance Models



*Simple Moving Average (SMA)
Find past trends closely related to current trend's technical performance for a nominal forecast:

2020-04-07,2020-07-02 trend was -3.53% from monthly high, 12.54% from monthly low, 1.41% from 10 simple moving average, 0.56% from 20 simple moving average, and 4.08% from 50 simple moving average.
2010-08-31,2010-11-24 trend was -2.10% from monthly high, 9.77% from monthly low, 0.39% from 10 simple moving average, 0.03% from 20 simple moving average, and 2.21% from 50 simple moving average.
2010-02-08,2010-05-05 trend was -4.27% from monthly high, 8.40% from monthly low, -2.36% from 10 simple moving average, -2.55% from 20 simple moving average, and -0.31% from 50 simple moving average.
2009-07-20,2009-10-13 trend was -0.20% from monthly high, 11.08% from monthly low, 1.82% from 10 simple moving average, 1.47% from 20 simple moving average, and 3.85% from 50 simple moving average.
2009-07-16,2009-10-09 trend was -0.06% from monthly high, 12.24% from monthly low, 1.90% from 10 simple moving average, 1.48% from 20 simple moving average, and 3.97% from 50 simple moving average.
2003-04-15,2003-07-11 trend was -1.42% from monthly high, 11.96% from monthly low, 0.81% from 10 simple moving average, 0.67% from 20 simple moving average, and 3.19% from 50 simple moving average.
2003-04-11,2003-07-09 trend was -1.07% from monthly high, 12.26% from monthly low, 1.48% from 10 simple moving average, 0.94% from 20 simple moving average, and 3.88% from 50 simple moving average.
2003-04-09,2003-07-07 trend was -0.95% from monthly high, 13.46% from monthly low, 2.10% from 10 simple moving average, 1.28% from 20 simple moving average, and 4.43% from 50 simple moving average.
2003-04-07,2003-07-02 trend was -1.89% from monthly high, 12.77% from monthly low, 1.15% from 10 simple moving average, 0.37% from 20 simple moving average, and 3.80% from 50 simple moving average.
2003-04-03,2003-06-30 trend was -4.13% from monthly high, 10.86% from monthly low, -1.51% from 10 simple moving average, -1.72% from 20 simple moving average, and 1.95% from 50 simple moving average.
2003-03-06,2003-06-02 trend was 0.00% from monthly high, 17.29% from monthly low, 2.94% from 10 simple moving average, 3.22% from 20 simple moving average, and 6.84% from 50 simple moving average.
2003-03-04,2003-05-29 trend was -0.26% from monthly high, 15.62% from monthly low, 1.36% from 10 simple moving average, 1.67% from 20 simple moving average, and 5.14% from 50 simple moving average.
2001-09-26,2001-12-20 trend was -2.35% from monthly high, 10.81% from monthly low, 0.22% from 10 simple moving average, -0.14% from 20 simple moving average, and 2.05% from 50 simple moving average.
2001-09-24,2001-12-18 trend was -2.09% from monthly high, 11.83% from monthly low, 0.11% from 10 simple moving average, 0.20% from 20 simple moving average, and 2.62% from 50 simple moving average.
2001-09-18,2001-12-12 trend was -2.71% from monthly high, 14.89% from monthly low, -0.77% from 10 simple moving average, -0.64% from 20 simple moving average, and 2.47% from 50 simple moving average.

Video Analysis





Software used: https://nforecast.com

Disclaimer: This is for educational, informational, and entertainment purposes. This is not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold. This is a hypothetical use of Nforecast tool. You should not construe any data or information presented by the author of blog posts or Nforecast LLC as investment, tax, legal, financial or other advice.