United States 12 Month Oil Fund (USL) Forecast Probability for June 24, 2020



United States 12 Month Oil Fund (USL) replicates WTI Crude Oil Futures contracts and takes into account of contango. Other Oil ETFs such as United States Oil Fund, LP (USO) does not adjust for futures contract rollover. United States 12 Month Oil Fund (USL) tracks daily changes in percentage terms of the spot price of crude oil delivered to Cushing, Oklahoma.

For the week ending June 26, 2020, commercial crude oil inventories increased by 7.2 million barrels per day and inventories rest at 533.5 million barrels. These inventories are excluded from Strategic Petroleum Reserve. From a 5 year average, that is a 15% increase on inventories. US crude oil imports increased by 6.0 million barrels per day and averaged 6.5 million barrels per day. Crude oil refinery inputs averaged approximately 14.0 million barrels per day, which is 193,000 barrels per day compared to last week's average. Refineries are operating at 75.5% of their capacity.

When examining and comparing current trend on a 60 day performance, the results are:

Day By Day Probability




Day by day probability consists on nominal forecast in percentage movements.

Nominal Forecast


Based on 2011-09-01,2011-11-28 trend, it took 7 days to move 3.02% or 14.83.
Based on 2011-08-30,2011-11-23 trend, it took 7 days to move 4.07% or 14.99.
Based on 2011-08-26,2011-11-21 trend, it took 7 days to move 2.62% or 14.78.
Based on 2011-08-24,2011-11-17 trend, it took 7 days to move 0.70% or 14.50.
Based on 2009-03-25,2009-06-19 trend, it took 7 days to move -0.80% or 14.29.
Based on 2009-03-23,2009-06-17 trend, it took 7 days to move -3.17% or 13.94.
Based on 2009-03-19,2009-06-15 trend, it took 7 days to move -3.53% or 13.89.
Based on 2009-01-21,2009-04-17 trend, it took 7 days to move -6.99% or 13.39.
Based on 2009-01-16,2009-04-15 trend, it took 7 days to move -3.47% or 13.90.

Technical Performance Models


*Simple Moving Average (SMA)
Find past trends closely related to current trend's technical performance for a nominal forecast:

2020-03-30,2020-06-24 trend was -5.14% from monthly high, 33.26% from monthly low, -0.57% from 10 simple moving average, 0.50% from 20 simple moving average, and 13.61% from 50 simple moving average.
2011-09-01,2011-11-28 trend was -3.27% from monthly high, 19.74% from monthly low, -0.21% from 10 simple moving average, 1.59% from 20 simple moving average, and 8.48% from 50 simple moving average.
2011-08-30,2011-11-23 trend was -4.44% from monthly high, 18.83% from monthly low, -1.41% from 10 simple moving average, 0.86% from 20 simple moving average, and 7.57% from 50 simple moving average.
2011-08-26,2011-11-21 trend was -3.71% from monthly high, 19.40% from monthly low, -0.39% from 10 simple moving average, 2.24% from 20 simple moving average, and 8.65% from 50 simple moving average.
2011-08-24,2011-11-17 trend was -2.60% from monthly high, 20.26% from monthly low, 1.20% from 10 simple moving average, 4.19% from 20 simple moving average, and 10.20% from 50 simple moving average.
2009-03-25,2009-06-19 trend was -3.95% from monthly high, 22.82% from monthly low, -1.70% from 10 simple moving average, 1.58% from 20 simple moving average, and 11.99% from 50 simple moving average.
2009-03-23,2009-06-17 trend was -2.28% from monthly high, 24.06% from monthly low, 0.12% from 10 simple moving average, 4.54% from 20 simple moving average, and 14.77% from 50 simple moving average.
2009-03-19,2009-06-15 trend was -2.81% from monthly high, 23.66% from monthly low, 0.26% from 10 simple moving average, 5.52% from 20 simple moving average, and 15.06% from 50 simple moving average.
2009-01-21,2009-04-17 trend was -3.51% from monthly high, 21.67% from monthly low, -0.79% from 10 simple moving average, -0.45% from 20 simple moving average, and 7.42% from 50 simple moving average.
2009-01-16,2009-04-15 trend was -3.74% from monthly high, 21.50% from monthly low, -0.69% from 10 simple moving average, -0.46% from 20 simple moving average, and 7.66% from 50 simple moving average.

Video Analysis







Software used: https://nforecast.com

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