United States Natural Gas Fund (UNG) Forecast Probability for June 22, 2020


United States Natural Gas Fund (UNG) reflects the daily changes in percentages of the price of natural gas delivered at the Henry Hub, Louisiana. The ETF invests in futures contracts of natural gas which are traded on the ICE Futures Europe and ICE Futures U.S. or other U.S. and foreign exchanges and NYMEX.

For the week ending June 26, 2020:
EIA Natural gas storage data reports a net change of 65 Bcf and implied flow was 65 Bcf, from 3,012 Bcf in June 19, 2020 to 3,077 Bcf in June 26, 2020. A year ago was 2,365 Bcf, which is a 30.1% change. Five years ago was 2,611 Bcf, which is a 17.8% change.

When examining and comparing current trend on a 60 day performance, the results are:

Day By Day Probability


Day by day probability consists on nominal forecast in percentage movements.

Nominal Forecast


Based on 2019-10-23,2020-01-21 trend, it took 7 days to move -3.92% or 10.03.
Based on 2019-10-21,2020-01-16 trend, it took 7 days to move -7.82% or 9.63.
Based on 2019-10-17,2020-01-14 trend, it took 7 days to move -14.50% or 8.93.
Based on 2019-10-11,2020-01-08 trend, it took 7 days to move -6.92% or 9.72.
Based on 2016-11-30,2017-02-28 trend, it took 7 days to move 7.13% or 11.19.
Based on 2016-11-28,2017-02-24 trend, it took 7 days to move 1.21% or 10.57.
Based on 2015-08-03,2015-10-27 trend, it took 7 days to move -0.08% or 10.43.
Based on 2013-05-15,2013-08-09 trend, it took 7 days to move 6.38% or 11.11.
Based on 2011-08-26,2011-11-21 trend, it took 7 days to move 2.03% or 10.65.
Based on 2010-07-08,2010-10-01 trend, it took 7 days to move -4.69% or 9.95.
Based on 2010-06-07,2010-08-31 trend, it took 7 days to move 1.63% or 10.61.
Based on 2009-09-11,2009-12-07 trend, it took 7 days to move 8.33% or 11.31.

Technical Performance Models




*Simple Moving Average (SMA)
Find past trends closely related to current trend's technical performance for a nominal forecast:

2020-03-26,2020-06-22 trend was -38.77% from monthly high, 4.23% from monthly low, -0.75% from 10 simple moving average, -4.19% from 20 simple moving average, and -13.24% from 50 simple moving average.
2019-10-23,2020-01-21 trend was -52.59% from monthly high, 0.00% from monthly low, -9.15% from 10 simple moving average, -10.89% from 20 simple moving average, and -18.26% from 50 simple moving average.
2019-10-21,2020-01-16 trend was -41.11% from monthly high, 0.00% from monthly low, -3.27% from 10 simple moving average, -4.98% from 20 simple moving average, and -13.01% from 50 simple moving average.
2019-10-17,2020-01-14 trend was -34.66% from monthly high, 2.73% from monthly low, 0.86% from 10 simple moving average, -1.40% from 20 simple moving average, and -9.92% from 50 simple moving average.
2019-10-11,2020-01-08 trend was -36.44% from monthly high, 1.44% from monthly low, -1.19% from 10 simple moving average, -3.44% from 20 simple moving average, and -12.55% from 50 simple moving average.
2016-11-30,2017-02-28 trend was -43.95% from monthly high, 2.39% from monthly low, -2.75% from 10 simple moving average, -8.53% from 20 simple moving average, and -16.81% from 50 simple moving average.
2016-11-28,2017-02-24 trend was -42.46% from monthly high, 3.11% from monthly low, -4.17% from 10 simple moving average, -9.62% from 20 simple moving average, and -16.86% from 50 simple moving average.
2015-08-03,2015-10-27 trend was -40.24% from monthly high, 0.00% from monthly low, -8.29% from 10 simple moving average, -10.49% from 20 simple moving average, and -16.90% from 50 simple moving average.
2013-05-15,2013-08-09 trend was -34.23% from monthly high, 0.00% from monthly low, -3.78% from 10 simple moving average, -8.42% from 20 simple moving average, and -12.33% from 50 simple moving average.
2011-08-26,2011-11-21 trend was -30.19% from monthly high, 2.29% from monthly low, -2.42% from 10 simple moving average, -6.48% from 20 simple moving average, and -11.13% from 50 simple moving average.
2010-07-08,2010-10-01 trend was -36.09% from monthly high, 0.00% from monthly low, -4.71% from 10 simple moving average, -6.04% from 20 simple moving average, and -12.25% from 50 simple moving average.
2010-06-07,2010-08-31 trend was -38.44% from monthly high, 2.16% from monthly low, -4.55% from 10 simple moving average, -9.38% from 20 simple moving average, and -14.88% from 50 simple moving average.
2009-09-11,2009-12-07 trend was -31.24% from monthly high, 7.70% from monthly low, 1.65% from 10 simple moving average, 1.05% from 20 simple moving average, and -10.74% from 50 simple moving average.

Video Analysis




Software used: https://nforecast.com

Disclaimer: This is for educational, informational, and entertainment purposes. This is not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold. This is a hypothetical use of Nforecast tool. You should not construe any data or information presented by the author of blog posts or Nforecast LLC as investment, tax, legal, financial or other advice.