VanEck Vectors Junior Gold Miners (GDX) Forecast Probability for June 23, 2020



VanEck Vectors Gold Miners (GDX) replicates the yield and price performance of the MVIS Global Junior Gold Miners Index. The ETF is non-diversified, which consists of companies that generate at least 50% of their revenues from silver / gold mining, streaming, royalties or mining projects.

For the week of July 2, 2020, Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) reports a 252.0 K of gold speculative net positions. The report provides market sentiment for speculative traders on their short or long positions. The report consists of net positions for non-commercial or speculative traders in futures market.

When examining and comparing current trend on a 30 day performance, the results are:

Day By Day Probability



Day by day probability consists on nominal forecast in percentage movements.

Nominal Forecast



Based on 2017-09-29,2017-11-10 trend, it took 7 days to move 0.87% or 35.90.
Based on 2017-08-25,2017-10-09 trend, it took 7 days to move -1.77% or 34.96.
Based on 2013-04-22,2013-06-04 trend, it took 7 days to move -4.31% or 34.06.
Based on 2011-05-13,2011-06-27 trend, it took 7 days to move 6.76% or 38.00.
Based on 2011-02-16,2011-03-31 trend, it took 7 days to move 3.09% or 36.69.

Technical Performance Models



*Simple Moving Average (SMA)
Find past trends closely related to current trend's technical performance for a nominal forecast:

2020-05-11,2020-06-23 trend was -4.55% from monthly high, 8.88% from monthly low, 6.10% from 10 simple moving average, 6.05% from 20 simple moving average, and N/A from 50 simple moving average.
2017-09-29,2017-11-10 trend was -5.86% from monthly high, 0.40% from monthly low, -0.61% from 10 simple moving average, -1.53% from 20 simple moving average, and N/A from 50 simple moving average.
2017-08-25,2017-10-09 trend was -7.37% from monthly high, 3.29% from monthly low, 1.99% from 10 simple moving average, 0.65% from 20 simple moving average, and N/A from 50 simple moving average.
2013-04-22,2013-06-04 trend was -2.48% from monthly high, 11.60% from monthly low, 4.39% from 10 simple moving average, 4.37% from 20 simple moving average, and N/A from 50 simple moving average.
2011-05-13,2011-06-27 trend was -10.72% from monthly high, 1.41% from monthly low, -0.95% from 10 simple moving average, -2.90% from 20 simple moving average, and N/A from 50 simple moving average.
2011-02-16,2011-03-31 trend was -1.17% from monthly high, 8.09% from monthly low, 1.97% from 10 simple moving average, 2.91% from 20 simple moving average, and N/A from 50 simple moving average.

Video Analysis






Software used: https://nforecast.com

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